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Your motor selection has a nearly 7 second thrust duration... I would think (with the wind expected) you'll get significant weathercocking... and that could take you all the way to the power lines! I've seen it happen! Pointing the rail downwind should help, but you may need more than 5 degrees just to get it to go straight up. All I'm saying is if it were me, short duration with high avg. thrust rules the day when there is significant wind.
I have dual-redundant dual deploy using a SLCF and RRC2+. 18in Drogue deployed at Apogee (descent rate of 61 ft/s). I don't deploy my main above 600ft, Saturday I'm thinking 400ft for primary, and 300ft for backup. I wrap the main chute pretty tight, on the test flight the main didn't open until about 150ft after being deployed at 350ft, I'm trying a new method for this flight to avoid that. Main descent rate is 14ft/s, I'd love a smaller main chute but UMass Lowell doesn't have any :/.
I also have a stability of 2.52 (will change with updated weights but not by much) so I will turn into the wind a bit with my 4.3:1 TWR. Using the wind forecast OpenRocket shows me only a few hundred feet from the rail (I saw closer to 400-500ft).
Sim settings are
Wind: 12mph @ 290Deg, deviation of 1.64 mph, turbulance of 13.7%.
Rail: 8ft, 0 degrees (even 5 degrees to the southwest is keeping it before the alpaca pen, ideal would be 2 degrees into the wind but that would be toward the power lines).
Altitude: 2820ft (expecting lower, Higher drag due to flat nosecone, cant on fins, + expected cosine losses from weathercocking)
Max Velocity: 260mph
I also have an eggfinder GPS onboard, just incase.